Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 68 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 4 July 2026 at 21:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 49 recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026 — 11 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 4:45PM EDT until July 4 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 20,130 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- July 5, 2026 · score 34 · 15.3 km
- September 3, 2026 · score 28 · 17.6 km
- September 2, 2026 · score 28 · 20.7 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.78/1 |
| Coordinates | 39.7667, -78.4780 |
| Nearest City | Cumberland (27 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 20.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Date | 2026-07-04 — time not reported by the source |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.63327ca64fade3fa86d8096e6540c407 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-04 — time not reported.
First archived: 2026-07-04T20:46:08.199Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fauquier, VA; Rappahannock, VA; Warren, VA; Grant, WV; Hampshire, WV; Hardy, WV; Caroline, VA; Hanover, VA and 16 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 4:45PM EDT until July 4 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T17:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 20 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.63327ca64fade3fa86d8096e6540c407add0eaf2.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.78874dfbc72400c760ad4b19e4b520d6320d5858.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1c8de26f5036b03d598812759af2f9e792628af5.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dc5e12a36cdff486394091f904e262b9d121bc67.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.089c1fdd38ad1c3d48109d1cb94ea4a9ad78dcc3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4044d262d19d7b2c353cdda7009fb0e85de64bb8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0ddc010140fb1fa3db08b029eb2d36a09ce2ca1f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1b91a7b0bbb122cf2d8bb09d2c328f0807ef6123.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4a86bb90bfd13e243e82defc47dc5e30309926be.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.de944876f7a6356599fc69758748bb05d4586179.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5c746cea45f7f9617231218c39787ca17fe0e646.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bbea29a0e218b038624e5a58ff0945f8dd0c2360.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7c8501fdc43db42db5553cc0e44c22275a11259c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.87d7c9d4f756a992dc5b2c3a90024be53b676c06.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9cca41cda330a6ed37c917340c15983bae5578eb.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2502adbd10a49aa5d1971e8a38e40bedd20fdb21.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d41659201e6bff8013a48bb9d93ce37b58408250.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.099fa41f3af0b92723f76963f0766bca22527319.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f1b56b6d266a1a3ae6034b7d7c982279b82b0032.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.55d1b4cb881de849e1f7d50f895e531c8e61b0a5.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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